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When UFC Heavyweight Struve got into the Octagon in his last fight against Dave Herman he had put on enough weight to have to cut down to 265 pounds. Struve will be chasing his fourth fight bonus this weekend and will look to continue his steady improvement.
Struve’s height and reach give him an edge against most opponents in the stand-up portion of his fights, and his ground game should be far superior to that of Johnson. If he’s able to beat Johnson to the punch he will dominate with combinations until he can take the fight to the ground, where he will have a big advantage and will likely find a way to submit his opponent.
Johnson will want to do what he does best and land heavy shots to the face of his opponent for a KO win. Struve has had difficulty in the past against heavy hitters, so Johnson has more than a puncher’s chance to get his third win in 2012. He’ll look to stand in the pocket and take his chances in a brawl with Struve.
Like most Struve fights we can expect a back and forth exchange ending in a highlight reel knockout or submission. Johnson has never gone the distance in his entire 22-fight career and Struve only left it in the judges' hands once in 28 career fights. The chances of this one going three rounds are slim to say the least.
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Dos Santos (14-1) took the crown with a stunningly quick knockout 1:04 into his fight with Cain Velasquez at UFC on Fox 1 last November. Quick endings are nothing new for dos Santos, who has won nine straight fights since his lone loss to Joaquim Ferreira at Mo Team League Final in November 2007. The Brazilian has won 10 of his 14 fights by KO or TKO and just two have gone the distance.
Mir (16-5) has won three fights in a row, last seen beating Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira via first-round technical submission at UFC 140 in December. Few fighters have been in the UFC longer than Mir, who started in the organization in 2001. He first won the title in 2004, beating Tim Sylvia at UFC 148.
Actually, dos Santos and Mir both were supposed to fight other competitors at UFC 146. Originally, dos Santos was scheduled to face Alistair Overeem, but Overeem was removed from the card and lost his license after testing positive for elevated testosterone levels. Mir was on this card to fight Velasquez but was last month promoted to fight the champ.
Mir has struggled against strong wrestlers with powerful striking, suffering brutal knockout losses against Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin. But Mir points out he has fared well against out-and-out strikers like dos Santos. Indeed, Mir was the first man to submit dos Santos’ mentor, Rodrigo Nogueira. Mir’s one advantage in this fight will be his submission game.
But dos Santos has sharp, practically lethal boxing skills much like former UFC legend Chuck Liddell. Only Roy Nelson and Carwin have managed to go the distance with dos Santos and he has finished 11 of his 14 victims in the first round.
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Ellenberger has been on a tear since entering the UFC in 2009. After suffering a split-decision loss to current UFC Interim champ Carlos Condit, Ellenberger has rattled off six straight wins against some of the best fighters in the division. It’s no surprise that he’s handicapped as the favorite against Kampmann.
Bovada is currently offering a price of -225 on Ellenberger, while a successful wager on Kampmann will currently pay +175. The price on Ellenberger has risen from a low of -200 while the Kampmann payout has been steady - only dropping to +160 at its lowest.
The Kampmann upset option has some value for one reason: Ellenberger had difficulty against the kickboxing skills of Condit, and Kampmann will present a similar puzzle for him to solve. If Kampmann can stick and move for five rounds he could win the fight via decision.
Kampmann has big wins against Rick Story and Thiago Alves in his last two fights and has elite striking skills; and he always has a chance to land a big strike that could turn the fight in his favor.
If he’s unable to stay out of Ellenberger’s range Kampmann will likely end up on his back, where he’ll receive serious punishment via Ellenberger ground-and-pound. Ellenberger could also end the fight with his heavy hands if Kampmann leaves his chin out too long during an attack.
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The first time the two met at UFC on FX Johnson was a -300 favorite against McCall. This time the line on Johnson at Bovada is currently handicapped at -155 and has held steady, only dropping to -150 a couple of times. Johnson showed some difficulty dealing with the speed at Flyweight, and will need to adjust his approach to pay out this time.
The upset line on McCall is currently handicapped at +125 at Bovada and could shrink in payout by fight time as the line has dropped to +120 a couple of times. McCall will look to do a little more than he did in the first meeting, and continue to exploit the holes that Johnson showed in his first fight.
As the lines indicate this matchup is a close fight. The winner will be the one who adjusts the best from the first time they met, and comes in with the proper strategy to do a little more than he did in the first meeting. Look for McCall to throw more leather while Johnson will likely try to get more successful takedowns this time around.
With a title shot on the line these two should lay it all out there and put on another great show like they did in their first meeting. The first fight won Fight of the Night honors, and this one has to be the favorite on the card to win it again.
Erick Silva may have been disqualified in his UFC betting debut against Carlo Prater, but his aggressive attack quickly displayed why he went unbeaten in 10 straight fights. Prater was beat down like most of Silva’s opponents have been, and now Silva will take a step up in competition against the talented wrestler Charlie Brenneman.
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Silva is currently an MMA betting Bovada -175 favorite to beat Brenneman and is expected to swarm his opponent from the onset of the fight. Brenneman is predominantly a wrestler who has had trouble against aggressive strikers that can defend the takedown. Silva will not only bring those skills but also has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under the Nogueira brothers if he finds himself on his back.
Brenneman has gone 4-2 in the UFC including an impressive win over Rick Story. He has elite wrestling skills and is capable of controlling a fight from start to finish if his opponent is not able to stuff his takedown attempts. As long as he can weather the initial Silva storm, his chances will improve as the fight goes on.
A Brenneman upset will currently pay +145 at Bovada. That payout has climbed from the initial line of +120 and could continue on that trend as the fight nears. This fight will likely come down to the chin of Brenneman and how he handles the striking skills that Silva will surely be bringing.
Silva will be taking a step up in competition against Brenneman but seems ready for the jump. MMA bettors will find out how he can deal with an elite wrestler who will be looking to smother him and take away his ability to be effective in both the stand-up and grappling portions of the fight.
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Fisher may have taken the last meeting between the two via unanimous decision but it will be Stout who will be the odds-on favorite to win it this time. Oddsmakers at Bovada currently have Stout handicapped at the -310 favorite, mainly because he’s been the best fighter over the last few years - sporting a 4-2 record in his last six bouts.
Fisher has not been as successful over the last few years and has gone 1-4 in his last five and will likely need a win to continue collecting Zuffa paychecks. For that reason Bovada currently has Fisher as a +240 underdog. It’s no secret that he will be swinging for the fences in the Octagon on Friday night and will look to take full advantage of his puncher’s chance.
These two fighters know each other very well and there’s no reason to believe that they won’t put on another epic battle. Stout will be looking to use technique to out-strike Fisher and wear him down with pressure and power for either a decision or late-fight stoppage.
Fisher will need to be at the top of his game and will have his best chance to win if he can land a heavy shot that hurts Stout. His most recent fight against Thiago Alves ended in a KO loss, so the question of his ability to take a punch could also play a role in the outcome at UFC on FX if his chin has lost its granite.
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Maynard’s long layoff has brought a lot of change to the former No. 1 contender. Shortly after his title loss to Frank Edgar he left Extreme Couture and became a member of Nova Uniao camp. Now he will test his new skills against a tough opponent who has good wrestling skills and incredible cardio.
UFC odds makers at Bovada currently have Maynard as a -350 favorite, a price that has come down from a peak of -400. He’s expected to be too strong for Guida in a stand-up battle and will have the better wrestling skills if they end up in a clinch. It’s unlikely that Guida would win a grappling match against the stronger NCAA Division 1 wrestler, so he will want to take his chances in a striking battle.
Guida is currently a +265 underdog against Maynard and has been offered as high as +300. He will need to take what Maynard dishes out and continue to push forward. Maynard has only two finishes in his career and none in nearly five years. If Guida can weather the storm he could break the will of his opponent for a come-from-behind win.
In order to do that he will need to land punches in bunches and use his torrid pace to overwhelm his opponent. Maynard likes to fight at his own pace and if that pace is interrupted it could give Guida a big edge, especially since Maynard is coming off his first loss via a spirit-crushing main event KO.
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Werdum will face Chicago policeman Mike Russow in what promises to be a great battle between two well-rounded fighters. Russow is currently on an 11-fight win streak but will be taking a big step up in competition against Werdum.
Oddsmakers at Bovada don’t like Russow’s chances and currently have him handicapped as the +350 underdog. Despite good wrestling skills, Russow will likely not look to take the bout to the ground against one of the best jiu-jitsu fighters in the division.
The Bovada price on Werdum is currently -500 and has held steady since it was initially posted. The Brazilian is expected to be way too skilled for his opponent and should put on a great show in front of a friendly crowd in his home country.
Russow’s best chance to win would be to keep the fight standing, and if the opportunity presents itself take Werdum to the ground and then proceed to get out of his opponent’s guard and get the fight back to his feet.
Werdum will test his improved striking skills against Russow and look to wear him down until he can gain a favorable position on the ground. The big edge that Werdum has in this fight is that even from his back he will be able to end it at any point in the three rounds.
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Both fighters will be coming off TKO losses, but for Ortiz this fight at UFC 148 will be his final competition for the organization. With only one win in his last eight fights Ortiz will be a big underdog this time around. Griffin won the last meeting by close decision and is expected to do even better this weekend.
As the current Bovada -325 favorite Griffin is expected to use his takedown defense to keep the fight standing where he can utilize his kickboxing skills to wear down his opponent. Griffin is well past his prime but is still considered one of the top 205-pound fighters in MMA.
Ortiz is currently a +250 underdog at Bovada and will need to find a way to get Griffin on his back where he can put his Hall of Fame ground-and-pound skills to work. Ortiz also has the capability to submit Griffin if the situation presents itself.
One factor that could end up playing a role is that it’s going to be Ortiz’s last UFC fight. He should be putting it all on the line and looking to put on a good show for his loyal fans. Does the former dominant champion have one last great fight in him? If he does it will make for a big payday for bettors who opt for the Ortiz action just one more time.
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This fight has a good chance of ending before the final horn sounds. The question that MMA fans have to answer is which fighter will land the big shot that leads to the KO end? It will come down to the technical striking of Cote vs. the martial arts strikes of Le.
Cote is a kickboxer with heavy hands and solid defense who has fought the best in the division in his career. Before injuring his knee he was giving UFC Middleweight champion Silva a run for his money in his one title shot. Since leaving the UFC in 2010 Cote has gone 4-0 in other promotions and now gets a chance to earn another UFC contract.
Le came into the UFC as the former Strikeforce Middleweight champ but was stopped by Wanderlei Silva in his debut. Now he will face another talented striker who will stand in front of him and bring heavy action. Le will need to land one of his inventive martial arts strikes to gain the upper hand, but if he does his finishing abilities speak for themselves.
With both fighters having the ability to finish their opponent with one strike, this fight could go either way in a hurry. Both need a win to stay in Dana White’s good graces, so MMA fans can bank on these two guys laying it all out in their three-round fight.
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Donaire is on a current 27-fight win streak that includes 17 wins via knockout. The speedy champion will be giving up five inches in height to his opponent and there’s also the question of whether or not Donaire will have the same power in the higher weight classes. His only other fight at Super Bantamweight was a narrow split-decision win.
Mathebula is a formidable opponent who presents a mix of speed and accurate combinations that would give any fighter a tough time. He does not possess big power with only 14 knockouts in 31 fights, but his experience should also come into play if the fight goes deep into the championship rounds.
Another factor that could affect Mathebula’s performance is that this fight is the first one to be fought outside his native South Africa. For many fighters a hostile crowd can play on their performance, and it remains to be seen if Mathebula will be one of them.
The difference in this fight will be either the reach of Mathebula or the foot speed of Donaire. Whichever fighter is able to impose their special skills in this fight will be the new unified Super Bantamweight champion and will move on to bigger fights within the stacked division.
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Currently Bovada has moneyline action on Klitschko, and he's handicapped as a big -3000 favorite against an opponent he has already knocked out. Klitschko's reach and power have been too much for every opponent to handle since he became champion eight years ago, and it’s expected that he comes out on top again this time around.
If you like longshot bets an upset win for Thompson will pay +1100 at Bovada. Thompson will need an inventive strategy to beat Klitschko this time around but he does have the power to do it - claiming 24 of his 36 wins via knockout in his career.
In their first fight Thompson was holding his own until he tired after the seventh round and eventually fell via KO in the eleventh. Since then he has gone 5-0 with all five wins coming via TKO. If he has improved since their first meeting he could make the rematch an interesting battle, and potentially bring a big payday to the lucky bettors who opt in on that action.
As it usually does action on the Klitschko brothers comes at a hefty price - but that’s for a very good reason. Since 2003 the brothers have a record of 27-0, and many boxing betting fans have taken advantage of this to pad their bankroll for nearly a decade.
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This fight has a good chance of ending before the final horn sounds. The question that MMA fans have to answer is which fighter will land the big shot that leads to the KO end? It will come down to the technical striking of Cote vs. the martial arts strikes of Le.
Cote is a kickboxer with heavy hands and solid defense who has fought the best in the division in his career. Before injuring his knee he was giving UFC Middleweight champion Silva a run for his money in his one title shot. Since leaving the UFC in 2010 Cote has gone 4-0 in other promotions and now gets a chance to earn another UFC contract.
Le came into the UFC as the former Strikeforce Middleweight champ but was stopped by Wanderlei Silva in his debut. Now he will face another talented striker who will stand in front of him and bring heavy action. Le will need to land one of his inventive martial arts strikes to gain the upper hand, but if he does his finishing abilities speak for themselves.
With both fighters having the ability to finish their opponent with one strike, this fight could go either way in a hurry. Both need a win to stay in Dana White’s good graces, so MMA fans can bank on these two guys laying it all out in their three-round fight.
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Munoz has been out of action since his second-round TKO of Chris Leben last November. He was first scheduled to fight Chael Sonnen but had to bow out with an injury, and now he has to get past the undefeated Weidman to get a date with Silva. Despite dominant wins over Leben and Demian Maia his last two times out, oddsmakers at Bovada currently have him handicapped as the +115 underdog.
Munoz is the current underdog for one major reason - the wrestling skills of Weidman. An undefeated two-time NCAA Division I All-American, Weidman has dominated every opponent he’s face thus far and oddsmakers at Bovada are offering UFC odds of -145 that he does the same to Munoz.
Munoz will be a real test for Weidman because he is also a decorated collegiate wrestler with back-to-back Division 1 All-American honors at 197 pounds. If Munoz can nullify Weidman’s takedown game his power could be the difference and end up paying upset action.
Where Weidman has an undisputed edge is in age and aggression. Munoz’s two UFC losses have come against Yushin Okami and Matt Hamill, both elite grapplers who were able to dictate how the fight progressed. If Munoz is forced to spend any extended time on his back his dreams of a UFC Middleweight title shot will slip out of his hands once again.
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Rockhold has run off a streak of eight straight wins, all coming via first-round stoppages except his unanimous decision title win against Souza. His jiu-jitsu and kickboxing skills have been a lethal combination, making it easy for the oddsmakers at Bovada to handicap him as the -315 favorite for this weekend. The champ is expected to submit his opponent in the first or second round for another lopsided victory.
Kennedy will be fighting for the Strikeforce Middleweight championship for the second time. In his first attempt he fell short in a vacant title match against Souza and he will now try again as the Bovada +245 underdog. The tough U.S. Military Staff Sergeant has never been finished in his MMA career but he will be in tough against the technique that Rockhold will bring.
Kennedy will be looking to take down the champ and work a ground-and-pound approach for a decision victory. He will have to be careful of Rockhold’s jiu-jitsu skills, which can end the fight in the blink of an eye if the right opportunity comes along. As long as he can control the champ’s movement he stands a chance at the upset victory.
One intangible element of this matchup that warrants discussion is that Rockhold trains at American Top Team. He will be coming into the fight with a good Greg Jackson fight plan, as well as having trained with some of the best MMA fighters in the sport.
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Marquardt was once one of the best bets in MMA but he has had inconsistent results over the last three years, going 6-4 in his last 10 fights. His multiple issues with banned substances have tainted what was once an impressive career, but at the age of 33 he will begin the long road back to relevancy in the Welterweight division.
Despite all the adversity that Marquardt has faced over the last few years he will come into his first Strikeforce fight as a slight favorite; Bovada is currently offering a -120 price on a Marquardt win. In the past that price would be a steal, but it remains to be seen how he will adjust to the layoff and the circumstances surrounding his doping problems.
Woodley has been a wrestling wrecking machine, amassing a 10-0 record including eight straight wins in the Strikeforce promotion. He gets the chance of a lifetime to face a known former UFC contender and make a name for himself at 170 pounds.
Oddsmakers at Bovada are giving Woodley a good chance to win and are offering a -110 price on the up-and-comer. He will look to utilize his wrestling skills and seek opportunities for a submission attempt if Marquardt gives him a chance.
If Marquardt is finally healthy and can return to the form that saw him beat Demian Maia, Martin Kampmann and Jeremy Horn he could easily outclass Woodley with his technical striking and raw aggression.
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Lombard gets his initial UFC test from the very capable Tim Boetsch, who has gone 4-1 since returning to the UFC. That streak includes an impressive KO win over Yushin Okami in his last fight and three straight victories since cutting down to middleweight and fighting smaller opponents.
Despite never fighting UFC-level opposition, oddsmakers at Bovada currently have Lombard handicapped as a -310 favorite. Lombard has racked up an impressive 25-fight unbeaten streak in other promotions but the step up in competition this weekend will be very real.
Both are very experienced but it's Lombard that has the most to lose; a loss to Boetsch and his UFC middleweight title run will be yesterday’s news in a hurry.
Boetsch has shown marked improvement over his last three fights and is an absolute mauler at 185 pounds. The underdog line on Boetsch at Bovada is currently being offered at +240.
Besides taking a big step up in competition, Lombard could also be affected by entering the big stage of the UFC. Many successful fighters from other organizations have not dealt with the pressure of the UFC stage well, and if Lombard is not mentally strong Boetsch is just the type of fighter to take advantage of a media-shocked opponent.
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Jordan steps into the Octagon against Kongo as a replacement for the injured Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Jordan has never faced a ranked heavyweight and will be in the Octagon against one of the most lethal strikers in the division.
At only 27-years-old Jordan has compiled an MMA record of 13-3 that includes 12 stoppage wins. The Jackson’s Submission Fighting member might be glad to stand and bang with Kongo in hopes of landing the first big strike that changes the direction of the fight.
As a Greg Jackson student he will surely be getting into the Octagon with a fight-winning game plan. That plan could consist of taking Kongo down as soon as possible and working a submission or ground-and-pound approach on a one-dimensional opponent.
Kongo will be looking to do what he does best and beat his smaller opponent to the punch with his reach and speed advantage. Before getting caught by too many Mark Hunt punches, Kongo had schooled three-straight UFC up-and-comers and plans on shutting the gate on Jordan’s UFC heavyweight run.
This fight comes down to whether you think Jordan is ready for an opponent the level of Kongo or not. At 37, Kongo has shown a not-so-granite chin of late, getting rocked by Pat Barry and then KO’d by Hunt. If he can’t take a punch any longer Jordan stands a much better chance of winning.
Heavyweight Cheick Kongo is a fan favorite, but he will need a win this weekend at UFC 149 to stay in the good graces of the promotion's brass. He gets a chance to get back into the win column against former Louisiana State fullback MMA up-and-comer Shawn Jordan. Both are currently -115 at Bovada.
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Jordan steps into the Octagon against Kongo as a replacement for the injured Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Jordan has never faced a ranked heavyweight and will be in the Octagon against one of the most lethal strikers in the division.
At only 27-years-old Jordan has compiled an MMA record of 13-3 that includes 12 stoppage wins. The Jackson’s Submission Fighting member might be glad to stand and bang with Kongo in hopes of landing the first big strike that changes the direction of the fight.
As a Greg Jackson student he will surely be getting into the Octagon with a fight-winning game plan. That plan could consist of taking Kongo down as soon as possible and working a submission or ground-and-pound approach on a one-dimensional opponent.
Kongo will be looking to do what he does best and beat his smaller opponent to the punch with his reach and speed advantage. Before getting caught by too many Mark Hunt punches, Kongo had schooled three-straight UFC up-and-comers and plans on shutting the gate on Jordan’s UFC heavyweight run.
This fight comes down to whether you think Jordan is ready for an opponent the level of Kongo or not. At 37, Kongo has shown a not-so-granite chin of late, getting rocked by Pat Barry and then KO’d by Hunt. If he can’t take a punch any longer Jordan stands a much better chance of winning.
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As one would expect with two undefeated fighters, oddsmakers at Bovada have the bout closely handicapped. Both fighters are accomplished strikers, with Miocic a former Golden Gloves champion and Rosario a two-time WBC World Heavyweight Muay Thai champion.
Miocic is currently the -155 Bovada favorite, while Rosario is a +125 underdog. Miocic gets the edge for one simple reason - besides being a Golden Gloves boxing champion he is also an NCAA Division 1 Wrestling champion. That potential ability to take the fight to the ground and control his opponent gives him a true edge.
In his last fight Miocic destroyed Phil De Fries with punches in 43-seconds for a Knockout of the Night bonus, and it’s likely that he will at least test his boxing against Rosario. He will need to be wary of Rosario’s legs and knees, and at all costs stay out of the clinch.
Rosario has been an MMA wrecking machine over 11 straight fights. He has finished all his opponents in the first round with the exception of Carl Seumanutafa, who stuck around to endure an extra minute of punishment only to be finished early in the second.
Rosario has walked through ShoXC, M-1, and Strikeforce competition and now gets the big test on the UFC stage. If Miocic can’t take him to the ground, a highly-skilled Muay Thai fighter matches up well against a boxer.