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The Championship Playoffs begin this weekend and we have Aston Villa hosting West Brom while Derby host Leeds in the 1st Leg of the Semi Final!
Aston Villa vs West Brom
Two West Midlands rivals face off in what is likely going to be a very fiery 2 leg tie. Considering neither team like each other, this is going to be a VERY interesting fixture between Villa and West Brom
West Brom finished 4th while Villa finished 5th in the league table, however towards the end of the season Aston Villa have been the hottest team picking up 25 points from last 10 games winning 8 of them and recently going on a 10 game win streak. Villa have been up and down in the first half of the season but their red hot form has got them right into the Playoffs and they're actually the favourites despite being lower in the table. Villa did fail to win their last 2 games but a draw at Leeds wasn't a bad result while the home loss to Norwich was an irrelevant fixture and players got rested.
West Brom meanwhile have had an interesting season. Despite being in the Playoffs coach Moore got sacked near the end of the season they have been able to stay afloat and stay here comfortably. West Brom are on decent form though they lost to Derby 3-1 on the last day, they did pick up 10 points from previous 4 games so should be entering this fixture with confidence.
Both of these teams are very explosive attacking teams, in fact West Brom are 2nd highest with 87 goals and Villa are 3rd highest scorers with 82 goals and 3 of the top 6 Championships top scorers play for Villa and West Brom in Abraham, Gayle and Rodriguez so this could be quite a high scoring fixture especially considering that defensively neither are rock solid with 60+ goals conceded.
West Brom have been able to get the H2H edge over Villa this season. The 1st game ended 2-2 while West Brom won away at Villa 0-2 later in the season in February.
Players to watch for this tie have to be Tammy Abraham and Jack Grealish for Villa. Abraham has 25 goals which is 3rd highest in the Championship while Grealish has been up and down this season mainly due to injuries but has been healthy lately and has hit good form and given his creative abilities, Villa will absolutely need him. Grealish has 6 goals and 6 assists despite an injury riddled season to start.
Jay Rodriguez and Dwight Gayle are players to watch for West Brom. The strike duo have 45 combined goals with Gayle bagging 23 and Rodriguez 22 this season. Nothing more to add, both are extremely clinical and have been causing defences a lot of problems all season long. Either one could hurt Villa at any time.
Derby County vs Leeds United
Not considered as a rivalry like the other tie, but this could be a very interesting fixture.
Derby finished 6th while Leeds finished 3rd though disappointingly did not reach automatic promotion despite being 2nd with 4 games to go.
Despite Leeds being the highest team in the table out of the Playoff teams and Derby being the lowest, on current form you could safely say that Derby are looking the better side. Leeds finished the season very poorly failing to win each of their last 4 games losing 3 of those and picking up ONE point and their form was really summed up when they lost 3-2 to bottom of the league Ipswich in the last day of the season whereas Derby have lost just 1 of last 12 games and have won 3 of their last 4 including picking up wins against the likes of Bristol City away who were competing for a Playoff place and West Brom on the last day which clinched Derby the Playoff spot so definitely it does look like the 6th placed team could surprise the 3rd placed team.
Derby have been a very good home team, 3rd tied best with Leeds actually and they have only lost ONE game at home in 2019. Playing at home first could give Derby some serious belief if they can continue to perform the way they have had all season in front of their fans then a win from them shouldn't come as a surprise. Leeds are a decent away side but have lost 3 of their last 4 games including losing at Ipswich as I've said before.
Leeds have absolutely dominated Derby in H2H meetings this season winning 1-4 away at Derby and then beating them 2-0 at home. Expect a much tighter contest this time though.
Harry Wilson and Mason Mount are players to watch for Derby. Wilson has been great all season, the clubs top scorer with 15 whereas Mount has been one of their most consistent midfield players with 8 goals and 4 assists and if not for the injury mid season which kept him out for some time his numbers would be even higher. Ever since Mount returned from his injury Derby have been playing great football whereas prior to him being out they really struggled.
Kemar Roofe and Pablo Hernangez are players to watch for Leeds. Roofe has 14 goals the clubs top scorer this season while Hernandez has been scoring and assisting for fun all season with 12 goals and 12 assists in the Championship.
Betting Stats for Each Team
Aston Villa covered 73.9% total Goal overs at home (17-6) - Best in Championship
Aston Villa covered 39.1% of their Handicaps at Home (9-3-11) - 20th best in Championship
West Brom covered 52.2% total Goal overs away from home (12-11) - 8th best in Championship
West Brom covered 52.2% of their Handicaps away from home (12-11) - 7th best in Championship
Derby have covered 47.8% total Goal Overs at home (11-12) - 13th best in Championship
Derby have covered 52.2% of their Handicaps at home (12-1-10) - 8th best in Championship
Leeds have covered 52.2% total Goal Overs away from home (12-11) - 11th best in Championship
Leeds have covered 47.8% of their Handicaps away from home (11-3-9) - 12th best in Championship
Odds - Unibet
Aston Villa Win 1.90
Draw 3.40
West Brom Win 4.50
Aston Villa Advance 1.65
West Brom Advance 2.20
Derby Win 3.40
Draw 3.15
Leeds Win 2.35
Derby Advance 2.40
Leeds Advance 1.50
My Predictions
I think the home teams will get wins here. Aston Villa have been on a very good form, West Brom are playing decent too but at the moment Villa are clicking on all cylinders and have looked like the best team in the league in general over the past month and playing in front of their fans in such a big game I expect them to turn up and win.
My picks for this game is Over 2.5 goals at 1.96, Villa win at 1.90 and Tammy Abraham to Score anytime at 2.10. Two high scoring teams should provide us with some goals here but in the end I expect Aston Villa to win this game 3-1.
Meanwhile, I do believe Derby will win despite being the underdog against Leeds. Leeds are playing very poorly at the moment and maybe they'll flick the switch but then again they already showed me that they have the ability to crumble under pressure when they surrendered 2nd place despite what seemed like an easy run of fixtures for them. Derby have already overcome adversity multiple times in hopes of getting to the Playoffs and to me it just seems like they're better built for big games therefore I'm picking Derby to win which is offered at great Odds 3.40 and would risk Derby to advance as well at 2.40. Otherwise I'm not looking at any other bets here unless something interesting pops up LIVE.
In my opinion Derby will win the 1st leg 2-1.
KICK OFF TIMES
Aston Villa-West Brom 12:30pm
Derby-Leeds 5:15pm
UK TIME