MLB Parlay Betting: Should You Focus on Favorites or Underdogs?

MLB betting offers countless opportunities, but parlays take the risk—and the reward—to another level. While favorites bring reliability, underdogs deliver the biggest payouts. So, what’s the best strategy for parlay success? Should you stick to the ‘safe’ route with strong teams, embrace risk with long shots, or find a balance in between? Let’s break it down.

The Case for Betting on Favorites

Favorites are favored for a reason. They often have superior rosters, reliable pitching, and a track record of winning. When betting on a parlay, including favorites seems like a logical choice because these teams are expected to win more often than not.

Pros of Betting on Favorites

• Higher win probability – Oddsmakers set lines based on talent, form, and matchups. Favorites usually win more games than they lose.

  
  

• Less volatility – Baseball is unpredictable, but backing strong teams minimizes unexpected losses.

  
  

• Lower variance – Parlay bets are risky, but stacking favorites can stabilize outcomes compared to betting on long-shot underdogs.

  
  

Cons of Betting on Favorites

• Lower payouts – Since favorites have higher win probabilities, their odds offer less value. A parlay made entirely of heavy favorites won’t yield a massive return.

  
  

• Upsets happen – Even elite teams lose, and a single loss destroys the entire parlay. If one favorite underperforms, the entire bet is lost.

  
  

The Case for Betting on Underdogs

While favorites bring reliability, underdogs shouldn’t be dismissed. In baseball, the underdog often surprises, creating big opportunities for savvy bettors. Favorites usually have superior rosters, reliable pitching, and a strong track record—making them a logical choice in parlays. However, not all favorites are created equal. 

Some are overvalued due to public perception, while others are consistently dominant because of strong fundamentals. This is where MLB team analysis becomes essential. Understanding why a team is favored—whether it's due to an elite starting pitcher, a dominant bullpen, or a strong offensive lineup—helps bettors make informed decisions rather than blindly backing the biggest names.

Pros of Betting on Underdogs

• Bigger payouts – Even small underdog victories create strong returns. Combining multiple underdogs in a parlay can multiply profits quickly.

  
  

• MLB unpredictability – Unlike other sports, baseball has a relatively high upset rate. A strong pitching performance or key injuries can swing an outcome.

  
  

• Market inefficiencies – Public betting often leans toward favorites, leading to undervalued underdogs. Smart bettors can find value where others overlook it.

  
  

Cons of Betting on Underdogs

• Lower win probability – Underdogs are underdogs for a reason. Even if one or two hit, a full parlay of underdogs is unlikely to cash.

  
  

• Higher variance – Underdogs are inconsistent, which makes parlay betting riskier when relying on them too heavily.

  
  

The Best Strategy: A Balanced Approach

Parlay betting in baseball isn’t just about picking winners—it’s about structuring your bets in a way that balances risk and reward. Sticking exclusively to favorites can lead to low payouts, while relying too much on underdogs often results in lost tickets. The key is striking the right balance. For example, a three-leg parlay could include two moderately favored teams (-150 to -200) with a carefully selected underdog (+130 to +180) that has a strong pitching matchup. This approach increases the payout potential while maintaining a reasonable win probability.

When you build your MLB parlay, consider how each selection adds value rather than simply stacking the biggest favorites or long-shot underdogs.

Tips for Building Smart MLB Parlays

• Look for value, not just favorites – A -300 favorite might win, but the odds may not justify including them. Instead, target moderately favored teams around -150 to -200 for better value.

  
  

• Spot live underdogs – Teams with an underrated pitcher, strong recent form, or a favorable matchup against a struggling opponent can offer solid value.

  
  

• Limit the number of legs – A three- or four-team parlay offers a reasonable balance of risk and reward. Adding more games significantly reduces the chance of winning.

  
  

• Consider run-line bets – Instead of a straight moneyline, betting a favorite on the -1.5 run line (if the odds are better) or taking an underdog +1.5 can improve value while maintaining strong chances of success.

  
  

Maximizing Success in MLB Parlay Betting

Betting on MLB parlays requires strategy, not blind allegiance to favorites or underdogs. While favorites provide consistency, underdogs offer better returns. A well-balanced approach, combining strong favorites with carefully selected underdogs, gives the best chance of cashing in. By seeking value, limiting the number of legs, and analyzing matchups carefully, bettors can maximize their chances of success.